Predict Bitcoin Daily Price Volatility With Machine Learning

GNY uses proprietary machine learning models to build the leading predictive tools for cryptocurrency traders. Our first product, the GNY Range Report, uses specialised neural nets and a custom RSI to generate optimised forecasting for the projected daily range of Bitcoin & Ethereum. This report is released daily and provides the most accurate projections of BTC & ETH volatility.

Successful Bitcoin & Ethereum traders have a deep understanding of the cryptocurrency market, and they know exactly how to turn the volatility of that market to their advantage. In addition to their knowledge they also have access to powerful charting and predictive tools that help guide their trading moves. The knowledge that these pros have and the exact tools that they use are often a closely guarded secret, making it difficult if not impossible for other traders to benefit from them. This is about to change – The experts at GNY are on a mission to provide access to data-driven tools that will help everyone make more informed market decisions. In this blog post we will share some of our Bitcoin volatility analysis, show you how machine learning technology can upgrade your trading skills, and we will introduce you to a machine learning-powered trading tool that is accessible to all.

Why is predicting volatility so important for BTC Traders?

High volatility in traditional finance assets is often viewed negatively especially by long term investors. However, high volatility assets are extremely attractive to day traders whose short-term trading strategies can result in generous profits should the traders open and close their trades at the optimum positions. More and more we see these short-term traders look to cryptocurrency to exercise their trading skills and increase their profit

Image shows BTC/USD chart inclusive of Wed 19th May 2021

Traders moving from traditional financial markets to cryptocurrency markets should be prepared for extreme daily price swings. For example, on Wednesday the 19th of May 2021 Bitcoin plunged 30% in one day. Bitcoin rebounded as the day went on, and was down 12% by EOD. Bitcoin’s loss for that week was more than 40%. 

Even in calmer market times it is not uncommon for the bitcoin price to be more volatile than traditional markets. GNY’s own analysis revealed that the daily average Bitcoin volatility was 4.1% in 2021 with daily volatility ranging between 4% and 10% when trading volume was above average and between 2% and 5% when volumes were below average. While these price movements may seem frightening to some they can be capitalised on by those with the correct risk tolerance, skill set, and tools. GNY’s BTC Range Report is one such tool.

GNY’s Machine Learning and the GNY Range Report.

Effective trading of cryptocurrency takes up-to-date understanding of market trends as well as deep analysis of hundreds of data points. These data points are publicly available, yet they are useless to someone without the skills to analyse them. Even skilled traders are still prone to overlooking or disregarding key indicators whether due to bias, emotion, or just plain old human error. Many traders will fall foul of apophenia; a tendency to seek patterns in random information. Even if the patterns are not present the human mind will fool itself into “finding” them. Humans are quite bad at assessing risk and much of this comes down to the fact that we find it difficult to truly see what is random or not. 

The driver of the GNY Range Report is GNY’s patent pending machine learning which correctly identifies repeatable patterns, and incorporates learning components that constantly adapt to ever-changing data. It does this by responding to millions of independent variable features while using hundreds of machine learning algorithms in parallel, in order to predict defined values. This depends on having a process that can find correlations in the datasets that the human mind or eye cannot detect; correlations that don’t sit within an X:Y or X:Y:Z, but a multi-dimensional axis, and one that changes all the time. Only a machine can see and track that. Previously our team has demonstrated the predictive power of our technology by outperforming the US Dept of Energy and being the first to demonstrate pollution as a contributing factor to Covid-19 related illness. GNY’s Range Report is the first predictive analytical tool our team has delivered to the crypto-community

Extensive testing of the GNY Range Report has delivered a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of between 3% and 7% making it one of the most powerful BTC prediction tools on the market. The average of the majority of competitor BTC prediction tools tested by GNY was 10%, but it was as high as 20% for some platforms. 

What the GNY Range Report delivers.

The GNY Range Report is refreshed daily and spans a seven-day period. 

Version 1 of the Range Report offers the following charts and indicators for Bitcoin & Ethereum:

  • GNY’s daily projected volatility range as a graph and a table – 7 Days
  • a forecast of which day will hold the weekly high and the weekly low
  • projected Opportunity Zones & Relative Values – 7 Days
  • historical daily high and low prediction graph for the past 30 days VS Actuals
  • MAPE for GNY historical daily high and low predictions VS Actuals for the previous 30 days
  • Hourly Candles – 7 Days
  • Hourly RSI – 7 Days
  • Daily RSI – 30 Days
  • MACD – 30 Days
  • Stochastic – 30 Days
  • Average Price – 30 Days
  • On Balance Volume – 30 Days
  • Average Directional Movement Index – 30 Days
  • Ultimate Oscillator – 30 Days
  • Parabolic SAR – 30 Days
  • Fibonacci Retracement – 30 Days
  • Candles with Hikkake – 90 Days
  • Coppock Curve – 90 Days

 The report can be accessed via our website with a 14-day risk-free trial.

Speculating on the cryptocurrency market can offer great opportunities to obtain substantial returns, but it also entails very high risks. So a skilled investor should research deeply and engage the most accurate tools in order to protect their initial investment, make profits, and realise when to take those profits. The GNY Range Report is not financial advice and should not be viewed as such. However, this powerful tool may help you make more informed, and less emotional decisions about Bitcoin trading, essentially giving your trading a machine learning upgrade.

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